Epidemic Situation of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in China mainland

youbin, Liu; bao hong, Li

[Objective] Analyze the occurrence of novel coronavirus pneumonia(NCP) in China mainland, explore the epidemiological rules, and evaluate the effect of prevention and control. [Methods] From December 1, 2019 to February 14, 2020, Analysis of 66,492 confirmed cases of NCP in China mainland. [Results] From December 1, 2019 to February 14, 2020, a total of 66,492 cases of NCP were confirmed in China mainland, a total of 54,406 cases were confirmed in Hubei Province, a total of 37,914 cases were confirmed in Wuhan city. On February 5, 2020, the number of suspected cases of NCP in China mainland reached a maximum of 5,328. Since then, the suspected cases have shown a significant downward trend. On February 4, 2020, the number of confirmed cases has gradually decreased in China mainland since then. On February 12, 2020, the number of confirmed cases of NCP in China mainland increased explosively to 15,152, and then began to decline. From February 3, 2020, except for Hubei Province, In China mainland, the number of newly confirmed cases of NCP has continued to decline; From December 1, 2019 to February 14, 2020, a total of 1,523 cases of NCP deaths in China mainland, a cumulative cure of 8096 cases, and mortality and cure rate were 2.29% (1523/66492) and 12.18% (8096/66492) respectively; Starting from January 27, 2020, The spread index of NCP gradually declined, and the extinction index of NCP rose little by little from January 29, 2020. [Conclusion] Starting from February 5, 2020, the number of suspected cases of the NCP is gradually decrease in China mainland. From February 3, 2020, the number of newly confirmed cases of NCP is continuous decline in China mainland except Hubei Province, This shows that the control of the transmission of NCP has achieved. Judged from the number of confirmed cases of NCP, controlling the outbreak in China mainland is to control the epidemic in Hubei province, and the key to controlling the outbreak in Hubei province is to control the epidemic in Wuhan city; Judging from the gradual increase in the number and cure rate of the NCP, and the gradual decline in the number of deaths and mortality, the trend of outbreak control and treatment is getting better; A decrease of the NCP spread index indicates a slowdown in the spread of the virus, but the cumulative confirmed cases is still increase, so the epidemic will continue for some time. However, the turning point of the epidemic in mainland China has not yet occurred. On February 12, 2020, the turning point of the epidemic in China mainland except Hubei province, has turned up.