Author: Emma Southall; Michael J. Tildesley; Louise Dyson
Title: Prospects for detecting early warning signals in discrete event sequence data: application to epidemiological incidence data Document date: 2020_4_2
ID: dp4qv77q_40
Snippet: A drawback of using the rate of incidence (RoI) as a measure of disease elimination, 273 is the need to develop methods to extract this rate from incidence data. In our 274 simulation study, we calculate the RoI in two ways. Firstly, using simulations of (1)). We illustrate how 292 EWS change over time, and how accurate the theory is to predicting these trends. In 293 particular, we are interested in the trends over time and whether these time se.....
Document: A drawback of using the rate of incidence (RoI) as a measure of disease elimination, 273 is the need to develop methods to extract this rate from incidence data. In our 274 simulation study, we calculate the RoI in two ways. Firstly, using simulations of (1)). We illustrate how 292 EWS change over time, and how accurate the theory is to predicting these trends. In 293 particular, we are interested in the trends over time and whether these time series 294 properties of EWS are the same for prevalence and incidence data.
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