Author: Emma Southall; Michael J. Tildesley; Louise Dyson
Title: Prospects for detecting early warning signals in discrete event sequence data: application to epidemiological incidence data Document date: 2020_4_2
ID: dp4qv77q_66
Snippet: While studies for EWS on incidence-type data have been growing in recent years, 471 theoretical exploration of how these indicators change on the approach to a critical 472 transition have been neglected. In this paper, we have shown that the typical trends of 473 EWS that precede a critical transition are exhibited in prevalence-type data but do not 474 always exist in incidence-type data. In particular, we have focused our investigation on 475 .....
Document: While studies for EWS on incidence-type data have been growing in recent years, 471 theoretical exploration of how these indicators change on the approach to a critical 472 transition have been neglected. In this paper, we have shown that the typical trends of 473 EWS that precede a critical transition are exhibited in prevalence-type data but do not 474 always exist in incidence-type data. In particular, we have focused our investigation on 475 the trend of variance over time as an infectious disease system approaches a tipping 476 point.
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