Author: Paul F Rodriguez
Title: Predicting Whom to Test is More Important Than More Tests - Modeling the Impact of Testing on the Spread of COVID-19 Virus By True Positive Rate Estimation Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: 06vc2y9y_9
Snippet: An estimated ROC curve of TP rate and FP rate, with an inflection point given by a parameter called TP-infpt, i.e. the TP rate when the number of tests per day is maximal but still somewhat lower than number of persons thought to be possibly infected. The region between the dashed lines are suggested plausible regions of rate values based on reported data. In simulations for South Korea and New York state the initial TP rate at the origin is 0.01.....
Document: An estimated ROC curve of TP rate and FP rate, with an inflection point given by a parameter called TP-infpt, i.e. the TP rate when the number of tests per day is maximal but still somewhat lower than number of persons thought to be possibly infected. The region between the dashed lines are suggested plausible regions of rate values based on reported data. In simulations for South Korea and New York state the initial TP rate at the origin is 0.01 (1%) and rises quickly. The time before it rises and hits the inflection point depends on number of days and speed with which health agencies ramped up their testing capacity.
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