Author: Rene Niehus; Pablo M De Salazar; Aimee Taylor; Marc Lipsitch
Title: Quantifying bias of COVID-19 prevalence and severity estimates in Wuhan, China that depend on reported cases in international travelers Document date: 2020_2_14
ID: h0h0d93t_26
Snippet: Second, the scenario where the virus has been imported from Wuhan and remained undetected in various worldwide locations is a plausible one, at least until the city lockdown (23rd January 2020), and one might speculate that detection capacity remained limited beyond this period as travelers infected elsewhere in China continued to leave China. Based on our model, the risk of undetected circulation correlates both with air travel connectivity and .....
Document: Second, the scenario where the virus has been imported from Wuhan and remained undetected in various worldwide locations is a plausible one, at least until the city lockdown (23rd January 2020), and one might speculate that detection capacity remained limited beyond this period as travelers infected elsewhere in China continued to leave China. Based on our model, the risk of undetected circulation correlates both with air travel connectivity and (inversely) to outbreak detection capacity, but could have happened in virtually any location worldwide leading to the potential risk of self-sustained transmission, which may be an early stage of a global pandemic.
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