Selected article for: "active monitoring period and incubation period"
Author: Nicholas G Reich; Justin Lessler; Jay K Varma; Neil M Vora
Title: Quantifying the Risk and Cost of Active Monitoring for Infectious Diseases
  • Document date: 2017_6_28
    • ID: h89scli5_18
    Snippet: The model showed that an increase in the duration of the active monitoring period is associated with a decline in the probability that an individual develops symptoms due to the disease of interest after the active monitoring period ends. The rate at which that risk declines depends on the estimated variability of the incubation period distribution. Since the estimated incubation period distribution for Ebola showed the highest variability, the p.....
    Document: The model showed that an increase in the duration of the active monitoring period is associated with a decline in the probability that an individual develops symptoms due to the disease of interest after the active monitoring period ends. The rate at which that risk declines depends on the estimated variability of the incubation period distribution. Since the estimated incubation period distribution for Ebola showed the highest variability, the probability of symptoms occurring after active monitoring ends decreased more slowly when compared with the other pathogens. This feature also impacts the sensitivity of estimating the optimal duration of active monitoring when the probabilities of developing symptomatic infection are mis-specified (Supplemental Text, Table 4 ).

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