Aging and COVID-19 mortality: A demographic perspective

Sasson, I.

Demographers were among the first to emphasize the importance of age in explaining the spread and impact on mortality of COVID-19. Yet, the relationship between age and COVID-19 is not fully understood. This study aims to answer the following questions: Do COVID-19 deaths follow the Gompertz force of mortality? How does the relationship between age and COVID-19 mortality compare with other major causes of death? Does this relationship vary between countries? Using US vital Statistics, COVID-19 mortality doubling time is compared with 68 major cause of death categories. COVID-19 fatality is similarly compared across 33 countries using COVerAGE-DB, a harmonized dataset of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths. Several findings are supported by the evidence. First, COVID-19 mortality increasing exponentially with age at a rate near the median of aging-related causes of death, as well as pneumonia and influenza. Second, COVID-19 mortality levels in the US are currently 4 to 8 times higher than pneumonia and influenza across the adult age range. Third, the relationship between COVID-19 fatality and age varies considerably across high-income countries. Fourth, these regularities can be utilized for indirect estimation of COVID-19 deaths by age. In conclusion, the relationship between COVID-19 mortality and age resembles the population rate of aging. Between-country variation in the Gompertz slope of COVID-19 fatality may point to differences in underlying population health, standards of clinical care, and data quality.