Covasim: an agent-based model of COVID-19 dynamics and interventions

Kerr, C. C.; Stuart, R. M.; Mistry, D.; Abeysuriya, R. G.; Hart, G.; Rosenfeld, K.; Selvaraj, P.; Nunez, R. C.; Hagedorn, B.; George, L.; Izzo, A.; Palmer, A.; Delport, D.; Bennette, C.; Wagner, B.; Chang, S.; Cohen, J. A.; Panovska-Griffiths, J.; Jastrzebski, M.; Oron, A. P.; Wenger, E.; Famulare, M.; Klein, D. J.

The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for models that can project epidemic trends, explore intervention scenarios, and estimate resource needs. Here we describe the methodology of Covasim (COVID-19 Agent-based Simulator), an open-source model developed to help address these questions. Covasim includes demographic information on age structure and population size; realistic transmission networks in different social layers, including households, schools, workplaces, and communities; age-specific disease outcomes; and intrahost viral dynamics, including viral-load-based transmissibility. Covasim also supports an extensive set of interventions, including non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as physical distancing, hygiene measures, and protective equipment; and testing interventions, such as symptomatic and asymptomatic testing, isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine. These interventions can incorporate the effects of delays, loss-to-follow-up, micro-targeting, and other factors. In collaboration with local health agencies and policymakers, Covasim has already been applied to examine disease dynamics and policy options in Africa, Europe, Oceania, and North America.