Author: Yuan Zhang; Chong You; Zhenghao Cai; Jiarui Sun; Wenjie Hu; Xiao-Hua Zhou
Title: Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak based on a realistic stochastic model Document date: 2020_3_13
ID: 0xzsa21a_122
Snippet: In the selected provinces and cities in our study, none of them has more than 2000 accumulated confirmed by now (See Table 5 in Appendix A). The numbers of confirmed cases, though alerting, are still not comparable to the total populations of these provinces, which are of the order 10 million-100 million (see Section 2 for exact population data). Moreover, for a system of size 1000 or so, it is not safe to argue the randomness is negligible due t.....
Document: In the selected provinces and cities in our study, none of them has more than 2000 accumulated confirmed by now (See Table 5 in Appendix A). The numbers of confirmed cases, though alerting, are still not comparable to the total populations of these provinces, which are of the order 10 million-100 million (see Section 2 for exact population data). Moreover, for a system of size 1000 or so, it is not safe to argue the randomness is negligible due to the Law of Large Numbers, which makes it already sufficiently close to its hydrodynamic limit. This justifies the use of stochastic dynamic in our model.
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