Revealing the influence of national public health policies for the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Wuhan, China through status dynamic modeling

tianyi qiu; Han Xiao

Despite the advantage of epidemic control, the lockdown of Wuhan has significantly increased the pressure of local medical resources, including the rapidly growing demands for hospitalization, lack of medical staff such as doctors and nurses, and shortage of medical supplies. The simulation results illustrated the establishment of new temporary hospitals that could accommodate more patients could significantly help the control of the epidemic. In fact, if the beds in hospitals were three times more than the current situation, the total infectious would decrease by 33% at the end point. After the period of rapidly rising, beds in hospitals were not an essential parameter since the daily increase of infected people was less than the people out of the system. The lock of medical staff and the shortage of medical supplies increased the death rate in Wuhan, which was significantly higher than the rest of China. Based on this situation, multiple provinces sent medical teams and supplies to support Wuhan for epidemic control and treatment, which might help improve the curative ratio. Till Feb.