Impact of climate and ambient air pollution on the epidemic growth during COVID-19 outbreak in Japan

Azuma, Kenichi; Kagi, Naoki; Kim, Hoon; Hayashi, Motoya

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spread worldwide in the first quarter of 2020 and resulted in a global crisis. Investigation of the potential association of the spread of the COVID-19 infection with climate or ambient air pollution could lead to the development of preventive strategies for disease control. To examine this association, we conducted a longitudinal cohort study of 28 geographical areas of Japan with documented outbreaks of COVID-19. We analyzed data obtained from March 13 to April 6, 2020, before the Japanese government declared a state of emergency. The results revealed that the epidemic growth of COVID-19 was significantly associated with increase in daily temperature or sunshine hours. This suggests that an increase in person-to-person contact due to increased outing activities on a warm and/or sunny day might promote the transmission of COVID-19. Our results also suggested that short-term exposure to suspended particles might influence respiratory infections caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Further research by well-designed or well-controlled study models is required to ascertain this effect. Our findings suggest that weather has an indirect role in the transmission of COVID-19 and that daily adequate preventive behavior decreases the transmission.