Author: tianyi qiu; Han Xiao
Title: Revealing the influence of national public health policies for the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Wuhan, China through status dynamic modeling Document date: 2020_3_12
ID: 9zs68dnn_20
Snippet: On the contrary, if the lockdown was delayed by 1 to 7 days, the peak number would be dramatically increased. It could be found that, if the city was blocked 1 to 6 days later than Jan. 23 th , 2020, the total infected people would be 1.23 times (95,273), 1.47 times (114,105), 1.83 times (141,409) , 2.28 times (176,300), 2.90 times (222,384) and 4.94 times (382,695) than Jan. 23 th , 2020 (Supplementary Figure 1 & Table 1 ), which was also consis.....
Document: On the contrary, if the lockdown was delayed by 1 to 7 days, the peak number would be dramatically increased. It could be found that, if the city was blocked 1 to 6 days later than Jan. 23 th , 2020, the total infected people would be 1.23 times (95,273), 1.47 times (114,105), 1.83 times (141,409) , 2.28 times (176,300), 2.90 times (222,384) and 4.94 times (382,695) than Jan. 23 th , 2020 (Supplementary Figure 1 & Table 1 ), which was also consistent with one previous study 14 . When the lockdown was 7 days later than the current choice, the first peak would arrive at Mar. 1 st , 2020 with 97,779 infected people and the second peak would reach 243,693 on Sept. 1 st , 2020. The number of total infected people would exceed 1.9 million and make the epidemic uncontrollable within the year 2020 (Figure 3b) .
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