Author: tianyi qiu; Han Xiao
Title: Revealing the influence of national public health policies for the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Wuhan, China through status dynamic modeling Document date: 2020_3_12
ID: 9zs68dnn_5
Snippet: According to the simulation results, the first patient (patient zero) was more likely to appear on Nov. 29 th , 2019. From Nov. 29 th , 2019 to Jan. 23 th , 2020, the basic reproduction number Ü´ was estimated at 2.65 before the lockdown of Wuhan. Till Jan 22 th , 2020 before lockdown, the cumulative number of infections and exposures was 4,153 and 6,536, respectively. After the lockdown, the value of Ü´ decreased to 1.98 for the first 30 days. T.....
Document: According to the simulation results, the first patient (patient zero) was more likely to appear on Nov. 29 th , 2019. From Nov. 29 th , 2019 to Jan. 23 th , 2020, the basic reproduction number Ü´ was estimated at 2.65 before the lockdown of Wuhan. Till Jan 22 th , 2020 before lockdown, the cumulative number of infections and exposures was 4,153 and 6,536, respectively. After the lockdown, the value of Ü´ decreased to 1.98 for the first 30 days. The peak point was simulated on Feb. 17 th , 2020 with 24,115 infected people and the endpoint would be near June 17 th , 2020. The total number of infected people in Wuhan was predicted to be 77,453. Moreover, we also simulated the infections under the three aforementioned public health responses. The construction of this model could not only study the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak in Wuhan, but also help design appropriate national public health policies for other countries.
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