Law of mass action and saturation in SIR model with application to Coronavirus modelling

Kolokolnikov, Theodore; Iron, David

When using SIR and related models, it is common to assume that the infection rate is proportional to the product of susceptible and infected individuals. While this assumption works at the onset of the outbreak, the infection force saturates as the outbreak progresses, even in the absence of any interventions. We use a simple agent–based model to illustrate this saturation effect. Its continuum limit leads a modified SIR model with exponential saturation. The derivation is based on first principles incorporating the spread radius and population density. We use the data for coronavirus outbreak for the period from March to June, to show that using SIR model with saturation is sufficient to capture the disease dynamics for many jurstictions, including the overall world-wide disease curve progression. Our model suggests the R(0) value of above 8 at the onset of infection, but with infection quickly “flattening out”, leading to a long-term sustained sub-exponential spread.