Author: Hui Wan; Jing-an Cui; Guo-Jing Yang
Title: Risk estimation and prediction by modeling the transmission of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in mainland China excluding Hubei province Document date: 2020_3_6
ID: 3e1ji2mw_38
Snippet: The forecasts presented are based on the assumption that there are no imported cases from Hubei and other infected regions. The WHO recently upgraded the global risk of the epidemic to 'very high'. New endemic foci outside China are formed, such as South Korea, Italy, Iran, Japan, etc. Although the current endemic situation in China is under control, population migration cross country border should be taken into consideration when we modify the u.....
Document: The forecasts presented are based on the assumption that there are no imported cases from Hubei and other infected regions. The WHO recently upgraded the global risk of the epidemic to 'very high'. New endemic foci outside China are formed, such as South Korea, Italy, Iran, Japan, etc. Although the current endemic situation in China is under control, population migration cross country border should be taken into consideration when we modify the updated controlling policy of COVID-19. With the development of the epidemic situation in other countries in the world, it is very important to maintain and strengthen the quarantine of entry personnel. The impact of international mobility on the transmission of COVID-19 will be studied in our future works.
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