Modelling the epidemic 2019-nCoV event in Italy: a preliminary note

Traini, Marco Claudio; Caponi, Carla; De Socio, Giuseppe Vittorio

An analysis of the time evolution of the 2019-nCoV outbreak event in Italy is proposed and is based on the preliminary data at disposal (till March 11th, 2020) on one side, and on an epidemiological model recently used to describe the same epidemic event in the Wuhan region (February 2020) on the other side. The equations of the model include the description of compartments like Susceptible (S), exposed (E), infectious but not yet symptomatic (pre-symptomatic) (A), infectious with symptoms (I), hospitalized (H) and recovered (R). Further stratification includes quarantined susceptible (Sq), isolated exposed (Eq) and isolated infected (Iq) compartments. The equations are numerically solved for boundary (initial) conditions tuned on the Italian event. The role of quarantine is specifically emphasized and supports the strategies adopted providing a numerical description of the effects.