Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against introductions of 2019-nCoV

Marius Gilbert; Giulia Pullano; Francesco Pinotti; Eugenio Valdano; Chiara Poletto; Pierre-Yves Boelle; Eric D'Ortenzio; Yazdan Yazdanpanah; Serge Paul Eholie; Mathias Altmann; Bernardo Gutierrez; Moritz U. G. Kraemer; Vittoria Colizza

The risk of importation of 2019-nCoV cases to Africa from China was estimated based on origin-destination air-travel flows from January 2019 [8, 11, 12] , number of cases in Chinese provinces, and the population in each of the Chinese provinces that report transmission. Case data were compiled as part of an international effort to build a database at individual level, and included all confirmed cases recorded until the 27th January 2020 [13] . Human population data per province [14] was used to estimate incidence in China. Province-level incidence data were linked to the three airports with the largest volumes in each province [12] (Fig. 1) . The province of Hubei was not included among the possible locations that can export the virus, given the . CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.