Author: Dziugys, A.; Bieliunas, M.; Skarbalius, G.; Misiulis, E.; Navakas, R.
Title: Simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic prognosis under quarantine and estimation of quarantine effectiveness Cord-id: scyndvq8 Document date: 2020_5_3
ID: scyndvq8
Snippet: A simplified model of Covid19 epidemic dynamics under quarantine conditions and criteria to estimate quarantine effectiveness is developed. The model is based on the growth rate of new infection cases when total number of infected cases is significantly smaller than population size of infected country or region. The model is developed on collected epidemiological data of Covid19 pandemic, which shows that the growth rate of new infection cases has tendency of linearly decrease until its constant
Document: A simplified model of Covid19 epidemic dynamics under quarantine conditions and criteria to estimate quarantine effectiveness is developed. The model is based on the growth rate of new infection cases when total number of infected cases is significantly smaller than population size of infected country or region. The model is developed on collected epidemiological data of Covid19 pandemic, which shows that the growth rate of new infection cases has tendency of linearly decrease until its constant value during imposed quarantine according to effectiveness of quarantine actions. The growth rate of new infection cases can be used as criteria to estimate quarantine effectiveness.
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