Self-reported symptoms in healthy young adults to predict potential COVID-19 disease

Nitecki, Maya; Taran, Boris; Ketko, Itay; Geva, Gil; Yosef, Roey; Toledo, Itay; Twig, Gilad; Avramovitch, Eva; Gordon, Barak; Derazne, Estela; Fink, Noam; Furer, Ariel

OBJECTIVE: To assess the utility of self-reported symptoms in identifying positive COVID-19 cases among predominantly healthy young adults, in a military setting. METHODS: A questionnaire regarding COVID-19 symptoms and exposure history was administered to all individuals contacting the Israeli Defense Forces “Corona call-center”, prior to polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. Surveyed symptoms included cough, fever, sore throat, rhinorrhea, loss of taste or smell, chest pain and gastrointestinal symptoms. Factors were compared between positive and negative cases based on confirmatory test results, and positive likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated. Results were stratified by sex, BMI, previous medical history and dates of questioning and a multivariable analysis for association with positive test was conducted. RESULTS: Of 24,362 respondents, 59.1% were men with a median age of 20.5 years (IQR 19.6-22.4). Significant positive LRs were associated with loss of taste or smell (LR 3.38, 95%CI 3.01-3.79), suspected exposure (LR 1.33, 95%CI 1.28-1.39) and fever (LR 1.26, 95%CI 1.17-1.36). Those factors were also associated with positive PCR result in a multivariable analysis (OR 3.51 (3.04-4.06), OR 1.86 (1.65-2.09) and OR 1.34 (1.19-1.51), respectively). Reports of loss of taste or smell increased gradually over time and were significantly more frequent at the late period of the study (63/5,231 (1.21%), 156/7,941 (1.96%), and 1,505/11,190 (13.45%), p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Loss of taste or smell, report of a suspicious exposure and fever (>37.5(º)C) were consistently associated with positive LRs for a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test result, in a population of predominantly young and healthy adults.