Author: Peter Boldog; Tamas Tekeli; Zsolt Vizi; Attila Denes; Ferenc Bartha; Gergely Rost
Title: Risk assessment of novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreaks outside China Document date: 2020_2_5
ID: ecu579el_65
Snippet: Assuming that the destination country has i imported cases from China that are mixed into the local population, we estimate the probability of a major outbreak as the probability that not all the branches started by those i individuals die out, which is 1 − z i . Thus, the expectation of the risk of a major outbreak in country x can be calculated as.....
Document: Assuming that the destination country has i imported cases from China that are mixed into the local population, we estimate the probability of a major outbreak as the probability that not all the branches started by those i individuals die out, which is 1 − z i . Thus, the expectation of the risk of a major outbreak in country x can be calculated as
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