Author: Peter Boldog; Tamas Tekeli; Zsolt Vizi; Attila Denes; Ferenc Bartha; Gergely Rost
Title: Risk assessment of novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreaks outside China Document date: 2020_2_5
ID: ecu579el_7
Snippet: The incubation period was estimated to be in between 4.6 and 5.8 days by various studies. The first calculations used data up to 23 January [21] . Weibull distribution was identified as the best-fit model by several researches when comparing LogNormal, Gamma, and Weibull fits. Backer et al. used newly available patient data with known travel history and identified the Weibull distribution as the one with the best LOO (Leave-One-Out) score [28] ; .....
Document: The incubation period was estimated to be in between 4.6 and 5.8 days by various studies. The first calculations used data up to 23 January [21] . Weibull distribution was identified as the best-fit model by several researches when comparing LogNormal, Gamma, and Weibull fits. Backer et al. used newly available patient data with known travel history and identified the Weibull distribution as the one with the best LOO (Leave-One-Out) score [28] ; Linton et al. gave estimates for with and without Wuhan residents using their statistical model with, again, the Weibull distribution scoring the best AIC (Akaike information criterion) [29] . The Johns Hopkins University Infectious Disease Dynamics Group has been collecting substantial data on exposure and symptom onset for 2019-nCoV cases. They recommend using their LogNormal estimate [30] , which gives a 5.1 day incubation period.
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