Author: Hui Wan; Jing-an Cui; Guo-Jing Yang
Title: Risk estimation and prediction by modeling the transmission of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in mainland China excluding Hubei province Document date: 2020_3_6
ID: 3e1ji2mw_25
Snippet: [23], which can be set to be the value of S(0). 21 confirmed cases were reported on January 20th, 2020 for the first time and the numbers of recovered and dead individuals were both 0. It can be assumed that nobody has been traced by contact tracing at the beginning. Therefore, we set S i (0) = Q(0) = R h (0) = D(0) = 0, and H(0) = T (0) = 21. The quarantined susceptible individuals were isolated for 14 days, thus µ = 1/14 [2] . According to [6].....
Document: [23], which can be set to be the value of S(0). 21 confirmed cases were reported on January 20th, 2020 for the first time and the numbers of recovered and dead individuals were both 0. It can be assumed that nobody has been traced by contact tracing at the beginning. Therefore, we set S i (0) = Q(0) = R h (0) = D(0) = 0, and H(0) = T (0) = 21. The quarantined susceptible individuals were isolated for 14 days, thus µ = 1/14 [2] . According to [6] , the incubation period of COVID-19 is about 5.2 days, thus ϕ can be set to be 1/5.2. ⟨ Figure 3 is near here ⟩ All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.
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