Research on the Influence of Effective Distance Between Cities on the Cross-regional Transmission of COVID-19

Shanlang Lin; Yanning Qiao; Junpei Huang; Na Yan

The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is . https://doi. org/10.1101 org/10. /2020 confirmed patients for 14 days, isolation of suspected patients for medical observation and treatment. Each item is divided into full, partial, and no three items, with a score of 1, 0.5, and 0 respectively. The content and implementation time of the measures come from the information or announcements issued by epidemic prevention and control headquarters in prefectural-level districts. We will explore the relationship between effective distance from Wuhan and the number of COVID-19 cases confirmed in different cities. As shown in Figure 6 (b), the correlation between the proportion of the outflow of people from Wuhan and the number of cases is not significant on the whole. We analyze that there are two reasons cause the result: First, he incubation period of COVID-19 is long, the patients only have mild symptoms, such as fever, fatigue and cough. The paper titled " Time-varying transmission dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in China " published in the international medical authoritative journal "the New England Journal of Medicine" revealed that the average incubation period of new coronary pneumonia is 5.2 days ; Second is that the first cases reported in most cities are after January 20. Although the number of cases was not previously reported, the possibility of an earlier infection cannot be ruled out. It is estimated that the outbreak started much earlier, and both within China and international infectious exports occurred before January and in early January. Based on the analysis above, this paper considers the All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.