Implication of Inter-State Movement of Migrant Workers during COVID 19 Lockdown using Modified SEIR Model

Maji, Avijit; Sushma, M. B.; Choudhari, Tushar

A modified SEIR model is used in the paper to evaluate the effect of inter-state migrant worker transportation during the lockdown in India. The model considers different levels of COVID-19 transmission during travel, daily arrival rate and total migrant workers. Indian states with significant migrant workers are considered to estimate the rise in confirmed and active COVID-19 cases. It is observed that reduced daily arrival rate of migrant workers can help Uttar Pradesh and Bihar to lower the rise in confirmed and active cases. By the end of May, 2020, the daily arrival rate of migrant workers will have similar effect on Rajasthan. For the daily arrival rate of migrant workers considered, Madhya Pradesh may experience higher rise in confirmed and active cases. Maharashtra, on the other hand, may experience marginal rise in the confirmed and active cases. A stringent policy to screen migrant workers for possible trace COVID-19 virus prior to the travel and stricter isolation norm after reaching the destination state can be helpful in reducing the rise in confirmed and actives cases attributed to the migrant worker transportation.