Impact of healthcare worker shift scheduling on workforce preservation during the COVID-19 pandemic

Dan M Kluger; Yariv Aizenbud; Ariel Jaffe; Lilach Aizenbud; Fabio Parisi; Eyal Minsky-Fenick; Jonathan M Kluger; Shelli Farhadian; Harriet M Kluger; Yuval Kluger

Third stage: This stage of the simulation determines at each day which HCWs will work the following day. At the end of each day in the simulation (midnight), any HCW who began showing COVID-19 symptoms 21 days prior is either put in the category of "very ill" with probability 0.07 after which this HCW is unable to return to work, or is put in the category of "recovered" after which the HCW is able to return to work and is immune to the virus. In addition, at midnight, each HCW who started showing COVID-19 symptoms that day is replaced by the healthy HCW in the same category who has been waiting at home for the longest period of time. Further each nurse who has worked 48 or more hours in the past seven days is replaced by the nurse who has been off duty for the longest period of time among healthy nurses. If at least one of these replacements cannot be made, the team fails and the simulation ends.