Revealing the influence of national public health policies for the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Wuhan, China through status dynamic modeling

tianyi qiu; Han Xiao

Notably, the hospital was full of people (>80% of the current ‫ܪ‬ ) in status ‫ܫ‬ from Jan 22 th , 2020 to Feb 10 th , 2020. After the increasing number of beds in hospitals at Date Jan 25 th , Jan 31 th , Feb 6 th , and Feb 10 th , the hospital was still full immediately, indicating the deficiency of medical resources in Wuhan at the early period ( Figure 2a ). After the large scale of mobile cabin hospitals, the shortage of beds in hospitals was improved. We expected that the peak point in Wuhan would be Feb 17 th , 2020 with 24,115 infected people, including 7,676 exposed, 1,999 infected with symptoms and 2,877 with medical care (Figure 2c) , and the epidemic would end on Jun. 17 th , 2020 with 77,453 infected people eventually, which was basically consistent with Yang's study 14 . The basic reproduction number ܴ was estimated to be 2.65 and would drop to 1.98 after one month since the lockdown. This result suggested that the choice of lockdown date and the number of hospital beds would significantly affect the development of the epidemic. Also, it should be noticed that the time of the epidemic period is overlapped with the Chinese Lunar New Year, in which public gathering events are expected. Thus, 1) the date of lockdown, 2) the number of available hospital beds 3) the public gathering events, were considered in our simulation.