Selected article for: "data point and initial number"
Author: Francisco Perez-Reche; Norval Strachan
Title: Importance of untested infectious individuals for the suppression of COVID-19 epidemics
  • Document date: 2020_4_17
    • ID: i2rmc37q_61
    Snippet: We fitted the Model 1 to data. Values for the incubation rate was set to 37 = 1/5.2 days -1 . The free parameters in our fits were the rate of transmission, , proportion of infectious that were tested, , proportion of tested infectious that die, , rate to recovery of tested infectious individuals, , rate of recovery of untested infectious individuals, , and initial number of exposed individuals, (0). We denote the free parameters by a vector = { .....
    Document: We fitted the Model 1 to data. Values for the incubation rate was set to 37 = 1/5.2 days -1 . The free parameters in our fits were the rate of transmission, , proportion of infectious that were tested, , proportion of tested infectious that die, , rate to recovery of tested infectious individuals, , rate of recovery of untested infectious individuals, , and initial number of exposed individuals, (0). We denote the free parameters by a vector = { , , , , , (0)}. The model was fit to the time series for the number of daily reported infected individuals and cumulative deaths, obs = { , } =1 , in a period of days in the early stages of epidemics (here, is used to denote discrete time in days). In particular, we used = 15 days since the first data point with a positive number of deaths (see Table 2 ). We used data at early stage of each outbreak to minimise the influence of suppression strategies on our parameter estimates.

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