Author: Francisco Perez-Reche; Norval Strachan
Title: Importance of untested infectious individuals for the suppression of COVID-19 epidemics Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: i2rmc37q_9
Snippet: The median of the recovery rate gives the following estimates for the time from reporting to recovery or death of tested infected individuals, −1 : 3 days for Spain, 3.3 days for Italy, 3.6 days for the UK, 4.2 days for Hubei and 7 days for Germany. The time for Hubei is consistent with the 3.48 days reported by Li et al. 11 for China. In general, the values we obtained are smaller than the infectious period (time from infection to death/recove.....
Document: The median of the recovery rate gives the following estimates for the time from reporting to recovery or death of tested infected individuals, −1 : 3 days for Spain, 3.3 days for Italy, 3.6 days for the UK, 4.2 days for Hubei and 7 days for Germany. The time for Hubei is consistent with the 3.48 days reported by Li et al. 11 for China. In general, the values we obtained are smaller than the infectious period (time from infection to death/recovery) reported elsewhere for COVID-19 3,29,30 . Our estimates thus probably reflect a reporting delay in all the studied outbreaks, in agreement with data on the onset of symptoms and reporting 28, 31, 32 . Our model predicts the smallest reporting delay for Germany. This is again in agreement with the high testing capacity of this country.
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