The Impact of Model Building on the Transmission Dynamics under Vaccination: Observable (Symptom-Based) versus Unobservable (Contagiousness-Dependent) Approaches

Ejima, Keisuke; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Nishiura, Hiroshi

BACKGROUND: The way we formulate a mathematical model of an infectious disease to capture symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission can greatly influence the likely effectiveness of vaccination in the presence of vaccine effect for preventing clinical illness. The present study aims to assess the impact of model building strategy on the epidemic threshold under vaccination. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We consider two different types of mathematical models, one based on observable variables including symptom onset and recovery from clinical illness (hereafter, the “observable model”) and the other based on unobservable information of infection event and infectiousness (the “unobservable model”). By imposing a number of modifying assumptions to the observable model, we let it mimic the unobservable model, identifying that the two models are fully consistent only when the incubation period is identical to the latent period and when there is no pre-symptomatic transmission. We also computed the reproduction numbers with and without vaccination, demonstrating that the data generating process of vaccine-induced reduction in symptomatic illness is consistent with the observable model only and examining how the effective reproduction number is differently calculated by two models. CONCLUSIONS: To explicitly incorporate the vaccine effect in reducing the risk of symptomatic illness into the model, it is fruitful to employ a model that directly accounts for disease progression. More modeling studies based on observable epidemiological information are called for.