Author: Julien Riou; Chiara Poletto; Pierre-Yves Boëlle
Title: Improving early epidemiological assessment of emerging Aedes-transmitted epidemics using historical data Document date: 2018_4_16
ID: 7gh1yzaa_37
Snippet: The forecasts of the total duration of the period of high epidemic activity were overestimated by a factor 1.3 (range: 0.1 to 2.6) with NI priors, again with high variability from week to week (Fig. 6D) . Informative priors brought a small improvement, in particular regarding the stability of the forecasts over time, overestimating the actual duration by a factor 1.2 (range: 0.7 to 2.0) with R priors and by a factor 1.1 (range: 0.9 to 1.7) with L.....
Document: The forecasts of the total duration of the period of high epidemic activity were overestimated by a factor 1.3 (range: 0.1 to 2.6) with NI priors, again with high variability from week to week (Fig. 6D) . Informative priors brought a small improvement, in particular regarding the stability of the forecasts over time, overestimating the actual duration by a factor 1.2 (range: 0.7 to 2.0) with R priors and by a factor 1.1 (range: 0.9 to 1.7) with L priors.
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