Author: Julien Riou; Chiara Poletto; Pierre-Yves Boëlle
Title: Improving early epidemiological assessment of emerging Aedes-transmitted epidemics using historical data Document date: 2018_4_16
ID: 7gh1yzaa_43
Snippet: The posterior distributions of all forecasted quantities changed as more data was included (Fig. 4 ). The posterior estimates of R 0,Z were quickly similar and in good agreement with prior information. On the contrary, the reporting rate Ï Z remained essentially unidentiable until after the incidence peak in Guadeloupe, and to the end of the outbreak in Martinique and Saint-Martin. This suggests that prior information is essentially required f.....
Document: The posterior distributions of all forecasted quantities changed as more data was included (Fig. 4 ). The posterior estimates of R 0,Z were quickly similar and in good agreement with prior information. On the contrary, the reporting rate Ï Z remained essentially unidentiable until after the incidence peak in Guadeloupe, and to the end of the outbreak in Martinique and Saint-Martin. This suggests that prior information is essentially required for the reporting rate, a dicult to estimate quantity as already noted [15] . Sensitivity analysis support this result. Indeed, providing informative prior on Ï Z only leads to similar results as providing it for both Ï Z and R 0,Z (supplementary appendix).
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- Guadeloupe incidence peak and incidence peak: 1
- incidence peak and reporting rate: 1, 2
- posterior distribution and prior information: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- posterior estimate and prior information: 1, 2
- posterior estimate and reporting rate: 1
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date