Research on the Influence of Information Diffusion on the Transmission of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Lin Shanlang; Ma Chao; Lin Ruofei; Huang Junpei; Xu Ruohan; Yuan Aini

According to the econometric model constructed above, benchmark regression was performed by controlling time and urban fixed effects separately. Column (1) in Table 3 performed a direct regression on the spread of information and the spread of the COVID-19, and the results were statistically significant and negative. Column (2) showed results when added traffic control and personal control variables. Column (3) showed the results after adding further variables such as population flow, Wuhan inflow, and GDP per capita based on column (2). The regression results are also statistically significant and negative. This indicates that after controlling other factors affecting the COVID-19, the spread of information has significantly reduced the spread of COVID-19 in the country. The regression coefficients of traffic control and personal control were significantly negative, indicating that after implementing a first-level response measures such as urban traffic control, segregated observation, and closed communities adopted by local governments were significantly effective, reducing the spread of the COVID-19. In terms of variables reflecting population migration, the coefficient of urban population migration variable is significantly negative, indicating that the decrease in population inflows and outflows has also reduced the spread of COVID-19; the coefficient of Wuhan population inflow variables is significantly positive, indicating that the population inflow in Wuhan has accelerated the spread of the virus to a certain extent. Wuhan is the place where the disease first spread on a large scale. The timing of the initial confirmed cases is unknown, and the lack of medical equipment and supplies after the outbreak has caused the number of confirmed cases to be lower than the actual number of confirmed cases. Therefore, in column (4), we exclude the data of Wuhan City, and the regression results are still stable.