Increased Detection coupled with Social Distancing and Health Capacity Planning Reduce the Burden of COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities: A Proof of Concept Study using a Stochastic Computational Simulation Model

Pramit Ghosh; Salah Basheer; Sandip Paul; Partha Chakrabarti; Jit Sarkar

The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054775 doi: medRxiv preprint 3. Our third intervention was to continue the lock-down for another 2 weeks till 28 th April, 2020 with a similar increase in bed capacity as mentioned earlier. In this case the number of exposure events at the on 28 th April was considered to be 2.5 considering the prolonged duration of awareness and practice on Social distancing. 4 . The fourth intervention was to release lock-down for 1 week after 14 th April for 7 days and then again continue it for another 21 days till 12 th May, 2020 with a similar increase in bed capacity as mentioned earlier. In this case for the second duration of social distancing, it was considered that the number of exposure events will linearly fall from 10 to 2.5 as a consequence of prolonged awareness and readiness of the population.