Mathematical Modeling and Simulation of SIR Model for COVID-2019 Epidemic Outbreak: A Case Study of India

Yadav, D. R. S.

The present study discusses the spread of COVID-2019 epidemic of India and its end by using SIR model. Here we have discussed about the spread of COVID-2019 epidemic in great detail using Euler method. The Euler method is a method of solution of ordinary differential equations. The SIR model has the combination of three ordinary differential equations. In this study, we have used the data of COVID-2019 Outbreak of India on 8th May, 2020. In this data, we have used 135710 susceptible cases, 54340 infectious cases and 1830 reward or removed cases for the initial level of experimental purpose. Data about a wide variety of infectious diseases has been analyzed with the help of SIR model. Therefore, this model has already been well tested for infectious diseases. Using the data on the number of COVID-2019 outbreak cases in India, the results obtained from the analysis and simulation of the proposed model show that the COVID-2019 epidemic cases increase for some time and thereafter this outbreak will decrease. The results obtained from the SIR model also suggest that the Euler method can be used to predict transmission and prevent the COVID-2019 epidemic in India. Finally, from this study, we have found that the outbreak of COVID-2019 epidemic in India will be at its peak on 25 May 2020 and after that it will work slowly and on the verge of ending in the first or second week of August 2020.