Study of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in urban environment by questionnaire and modeling for sustainable risk control

Yu, Han; Ye, Xuying; Zhang, Minying; Zhang, Fenghao; Li, Yao; Pan, Suxun; Li, Yuanling; Yu, Hongbing; Lu, Chengzhi

Caused by SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 has become a severe threaten to society and human health, its epidemic control emerges as long-term issue. A sustainable epidemic and environmental transmission risk control (SEERC) in urban area is urgently needed. This work aims to conduct a new investigation on the transmission risk of SARS-COV-2 as virus/hazardous material through various environmental medias, routes and regions in the entirely urban area for guiding the SEERC. Specifically, 5 routes in 28 regions (totally 140 scenarios) are considered. For a new perspective, the risk evaluation is conducted by the quantification of frontline medicals staffs’ valuable experience in this work. 207 specialists responsible for the treatment of over 9000 infected patients are involved. The result showed that degree of risk was in the order of breath>contact-to-object>contact-to-human>intake>unknown. The modeling suggested source control as the prior measure for epidemic control. The combination of source control & mask wearing showed high efficiency in SEERC. The homeworking policy needed to cooperate with activity limitation to perform its efficiency. Subsequently, a new plan for SEERC was discussed. This work delivered significant information to researchers and decision makers for the further development of sustainable control for SARS-COV-2 spreading and COVID-19 epidemic.