Author: Peter Boldog; Tamas Tekeli; Zsolt Vizi; Attila Denes; Ferenc Bartha; Gergely Rost
Title: Risk assessment of novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreaks outside China Document date: 2020_2_5
ID: ecu579el_42
Snippet: By combining three different modelling approaches, we created a tool to assess the risk of 2019-nCoV outbreaks in countries outside of China. This risk depends on three key parameters: the cumulative number of cases in areas of China which are not closed, the connectivity between China and the destination country, and the local transmission potential of the virus. Quantifications of the outbreak risks and their dependencies on the key parameters .....
Document: By combining three different modelling approaches, we created a tool to assess the risk of 2019-nCoV outbreaks in countries outside of China. This risk depends on three key parameters: the cumulative number of cases in areas of China which are not closed, the connectivity between China and the destination country, and the local transmission potential of the virus. Quantifications of the outbreak risks and their dependencies on the key parameters were illustrated for selected groups of countries from America, Asia, and Europe, representing a variety of country profiles.
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