Author: Peter Boldog; Tamas Tekeli; Zsolt Vizi; Attila Denes; Ferenc Bartha; Gergely Rost
Title: Risk assessment of novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreaks outside China Document date: 2020_2_5
ID: ecu579el_6
Snippet: Read et al. based their estimates on data from Wuhan exclusively (available up to 22 January 2020) and a deterministic SEIR model [22] . The choice of this date is motivated by the actions of authorities, that is the substantial travel limitations the next day. Li et al. used solely the patient data with illness onset between 10 December 2019 and 4 January 2020 [24] . The Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London .....
Document: Read et al. based their estimates on data from Wuhan exclusively (available up to 22 January 2020) and a deterministic SEIR model [22] . The choice of this date is motivated by the actions of authorities, that is the substantial travel limitations the next day. Li et al. used solely the patient data with illness onset between 10 December 2019 and 4 January 2020 [24] . The Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine have analyzed 3 of 12 2019-nCoV using SEIR and multiple data series [25] . Shen et al. used a SEIJR model (where J denotes the compartment of diagnosed and isolated individuals) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations [26] similarly to [27] . An alternative approach was presented by Majumder and Mandl [23] as they obtained their estimate based on the cumulative epidemic curve and the incidence decay and exponential adjustment (IDEA) model [31] .
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