Author: Lytras, Theodore; Panagiotakopoulos, Georgios; Tsiodras, Sotirios
Title: Estimating the ascertainment rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan, China: implications for management of the global outbreak Cord-id: xhnv5cje Document date: 2020_3_26
ID: xhnv5cje
Snippet: We sought to estimate the ascertainment ratio of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan, China, using a modified Bayesian SEIR model with publicly reported case data. We estimated it at 0.465% (95%CI: 0.464-0.466%), implying that the outbreak in Wuhan was abated by depletion of susceptibles, rather than public health action alone. This suggests a high-transmissibility/low-severity profile for the current pandemic and raises doubt about whether suppression, rather than mitigation, is a feasible goal.
Document: We sought to estimate the ascertainment ratio of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan, China, using a modified Bayesian SEIR model with publicly reported case data. We estimated it at 0.465% (95%CI: 0.464-0.466%), implying that the outbreak in Wuhan was abated by depletion of susceptibles, rather than public health action alone. This suggests a high-transmissibility/low-severity profile for the current pandemic and raises doubt about whether suppression, rather than mitigation, is a feasible goal.
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