Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_104
Snippet: Let us start with the long-run e¤ects. As we know from (12), the long-run e¤ects with reduced by a factor of 10 are 10 times lower. This is visible in the right part of …gure 9 displaying N ever 2 (t) : Once the epidemic is over, there will be 550 thousand individuals that were sick at some point, one tenth of the level in …gure 4. This is again independent of policy measures as the latter do not a¤ect r : 21 All of our scenarios could loo.....
Document: Let us start with the long-run e¤ects. As we know from (12), the long-run e¤ects with reduced by a factor of 10 are 10 times lower. This is visible in the right part of …gure 9 displaying N ever 2 (t) : Once the epidemic is over, there will be 550 thousand individuals that were sick at some point, one tenth of the level in …gure 4. This is again independent of policy measures as the latter do not a¤ect r : 21 All of our scenarios could look much more optimistic if we had a vaccine. To the best of our knowledge, this will not be available over the next 6 months. 22 We understand that from a policy perspective it is simpler to "sell a measure"that is the same for everybody than measures that di¤er across individuals. Yet, treating unequals as equals has rarely been a convincing idea.
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