Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_110
Snippet: Most importantly, however, theses two …gures display a strong quantitative di¤erence. If the long run infection rate in Germany is in the "data-quality adjusted Hubei range", the peaks are at a much lower level. In the case without policy measures and in the case where the current shut down (16) is the only policy measure, the peaks of the simultaneously sick number of individuals is just above 200 thousand. This strongly contrasts to earlier .....
Document: Most importantly, however, theses two …gures display a strong quantitative di¤erence. If the long run infection rate in Germany is in the "data-quality adjusted Hubei range", the peaks are at a much lower level. In the case without policy measures and in the case where the current shut down (16) is the only policy measure, the peaks of the simultaneously sick number of individuals is just above 200 thousand. This strongly contrasts to earlier values above 1 million. Another di¤erence consists in the quantitative di¤erence here between the extended shut down and the shut down. In the scenario with a lower long-run infection rate, an extended shut down implies that the peak of N 2 (t) will be much lower than the peak of the normal shut down. This was not the case in …gure 8. This points to the fact that shut downs need to be su¢ ciently strong relative to the overall potential number of sick individuals.
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