Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_116
Snippet: In the long-run, for given parameters, the number of sick individuals is not a¤ected by policy measures when the latter only reduce contact rates of individuals. All …ndings are subject to large uncertainty given little knowledge about long-run infection rates following a CoV-2 epidemic and individual sickness rates. It seems to be certain, however, that the epidemic will last at least until July, given the public health measures in place. Eve.....
Document: In the long-run, for given parameters, the number of sick individuals is not a¤ected by policy measures when the latter only reduce contact rates of individuals. All …ndings are subject to large uncertainty given little knowledge about long-run infection rates following a CoV-2 epidemic and individual sickness rates. It seems to be certain, however, that the epidemic will last at least until July, given the public health measures in place. Even in the case of a good scenario with extremely low long-run infection rates, the peak of the number of simultaneously sick individuals will lie above 200 thousand individuals.
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