Selected article for: "age distribution and fitted model"

Author: Waterlow, N. R.; Van Leeuwen, E.; Davies, N. G.; CMMID COVID-19 working group,; Flasche, S.; Eggo, R. M.
Title: How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology
  • Cord-id: y60zaelw
  • Document date: 2021_5_31
  • ID: y60zaelw
    Snippet: We hypothesised that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected SARS-CoV-2 transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the pre-pandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 years of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.3 years (95%CI 6.8 - 7.9) and show that, while cross-protection
    Document: We hypothesised that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected SARS-CoV-2 transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the pre-pandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 years of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.3 years (95%CI 6.8 - 7.9) and show that, while cross-protection between HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the age distribution, it is insufficient to explain the age pattern of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first wave of the pandemic in England and Wales. Projections from our model illustrate how different strengths of cross-protection between circulating coronaviruses could determine the frequency and magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics over the coming decade, as well as the potential impact of cross-protection on future seasonal coronavirus transmission.

    Search related documents:
    Co phrase search for related documents
    • adaptive immunity and long period: 1
    • adaptive immunity and long term adaptive immunity: 1, 2
    • adaptive immunity and long term medium: 1
    • adaptive immunity and longitudinal study: 1
    • adaptive immunity and low proportion: 1
    • lockdown pattern and longitudinal study: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
    • long period and low proportion: 1
    • longitudinal study and low proportion: 1, 2, 3, 4