Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany

Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde

The most important quantity coming out of our analysis is probably the number N 2 (t) of currently sick individuals. This number will decide whether hospital services will be enough for all individuals. The number of sick individuals rises strongly initially. This is the consequence of infections. As recovery sets in only after 2 weeks, the initial period sees this strong increase. Once the number of new sick cases reduces (as the number of individuals in state 1 decreases) and recovery sets in, the number of sick individuals falls again. The peak will be reached mid May. We note that this is a prediction for the case where individual contacts, as captured by the parameter a in (2), remain unchanged over time. If the policy measures in place as of 14 March have an e¤ect, we would expect a slowdown in the rise of N 2 (t) : This picture therefore shows what would have happened if no interventions had taken place. In this case, the number of sick (and reported) individuals on a given day, taking recovery into account, will rise above 1 million end of April.