Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_79
Snippet: We compare the daily risk of 1 in 10,000 or the weekly risk of 7 in 10,000 with the long-run risk of 7 in 100 by the end of the epidemic to be or have been sick (as discussed after …gure 4), it seems that at the individual level, the daily or even weekly risk of the epidemic is not really a major health risk. 19 It is clear, however, that at the level of society, the epidemic is a major issue. This di¤erence between the individual risk and agg.....
Document: We compare the daily risk of 1 in 10,000 or the weekly risk of 7 in 10,000 with the long-run risk of 7 in 100 by the end of the epidemic to be or have been sick (as discussed after …gure 4), it seems that at the individual level, the daily or even weekly risk of the epidemic is not really a major health risk. 19 It is clear, however, that at the level of society, the epidemic is a major issue. This di¤erence between the individual risk and aggregate outcomes is the result of a classic negative externality. Even individuals that take into account the overall risk of 7 in 100 to turn sick might not be concerned. If the risk of infecting others was taken into account, individual behaviour would look di¤erently. This is why governmental interventions have a clear justi…cation from the perspective of market failure and public economics.
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