Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period

Stephen M Kissler; Christine Tedijanto; Edward Goldstein; Yonatan H. Grad; Marc Lipsitch

Accurately quantifying the probability of SARS-CoV-2 extinction would depend on many factors for which sufficient evidence is currently lacking. We have used percent test-positive multiplied by percent ILI to approximate coronavirus incidence up to a proportional constant; results were similar when using the raw number of positive tests and the raw percent positive as incidence proxies, see Figure S1 . While the percent test-positive multiplied by percent ILI has been shown to be one of the best available proxies for influenza incidence (18) , the conversion between this measure and true incidence of coronavirus infections is unclear, and so we do not make precise estimates of the overall coronavirus incidence. This conversion will undoubtedly depend on the particular population for which these estimates are being made. Recent evidence from New York suggests that some 4% of coronavirus cases seek medical care, and only a fraction of these are tested (28) . In addition, the method that we adopted to estimate the effective reproduction number depends on the serial interval distribution, which has not been well-studied for commonly circulating human coronaviruses; we used the best-available . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.