SIR Model-based Prediction of Infected Population of Coronavirus in Hubei Province

Zhang, Jun; Wang, Lihong; Wang, Ji

After the sudden outbreak of Coronavirus in Wuhan, continuous and rich data of the epidemic has been made public as the vital fact for decision support in control measures and aggressive implementation of containment strategies and plans. With the further growth and spreading of the virus, future resource allocation and planning under updated strategies and measures rely on careful study of the epidemic data and characteristics for accurate prediction and estimation. By using the SIR model and reported data, key parameters are obtained from least sum of squared errors for an accurate prediction of epidemic trend in the last four weeks.