Selected article for: "critical transition and disease emergence"

Author: Emma Southall; Michael J. Tildesley; Louise Dyson
Title: Prospects for detecting early warning signals in discrete event sequence data: application to epidemiological incidence data
  • Document date: 2020_4_2
  • ID: dp4qv77q_21
    Snippet: Finally we consider the SIS model with external infection which has been used to 168 investigate EWS in prevalence and in incidence [4, 5] . We demonstrate how our 169 analytical results compare for this system, and illustrate differences when applied to and we consider the model in a stochastic formulation, with transition probabilities 175 given in Table 1 . Disease emergence is driven by increasing the effective contact rate 176 β(t) over tim.....
    Document: Finally we consider the SIS model with external infection which has been used to 168 investigate EWS in prevalence and in incidence [4, 5] . We demonstrate how our 169 analytical results compare for this system, and illustrate differences when applied to and we consider the model in a stochastic formulation, with transition probabilities 175 given in Table 1 . Disease emergence is driven by increasing the effective contact rate 176 β(t) over time, that slowly increases R 0 through the critical transition at R 0 = 1,

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