Author: Lloyd A. C. Chapman; Simon E. F. Spencer; Timothy M. Pollington; Chris P. Jewell; Dinesh Mondal; Jorge Alvar; T. Deirdre Hollingsworth; Mary M. Cameron; Caryn Bern; Graham F. Medley
Title: Inferring transmission trees to guide targeting of interventions against visceral leishmaniasis and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis Document date: 2020_2_25
ID: nqn1qzcu_32
Snippet: Model for initial status of non-symptomatic individuals. As there was transmission and VL in the population before the start The probabilities of each non-symptomatic individual initially present (i.e. with Vj = 0) being susceptible, asymptomatically infected, or recovered from asymptomatic infection at time t = 0 can then be found by calculating the probability of avoiding infection in every month from their birth to the start of the study, summ.....
Document: Model for initial status of non-symptomatic individuals. As there was transmission and VL in the population before the start The probabilities of each non-symptomatic individual initially present (i.e. with Vj = 0) being susceptible, asymptomatically infected, or recovered from asymptomatic infection at time t = 0 can then be found by calculating the probability of avoiding infection in every month from their birth to the start of the study, summing over the probabilities of being infected in one of the months between their birth and the start of the study and recovering after the start of the study, and summing over the 6 of 37 probabilities of being infected in a month before the start of the study and recovering before the start of the study, respectively: pS 0 (aj) := P(Aj > 0, Rj > 0) = e ≠℠0 a j [13] pA 0 (aj) := P(Aj AE 0,
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