Author: Hui Wan; Jing-an Cui; Guo-Jing Yang
Title: Risk estimation and prediction by modeling the transmission of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in mainland China excluding Hubei province Document date: 2020_3_6
ID: 3e1ji2mw_12
Snippet: With the increasing of cumulative number of confirmed cases, the probability of contact transmission among the informed susceptible populations would certainly reduce ( [17, 18, 19] , etc.). To better quantify the varied interventions and self-protection measures, we assume the contact rate to be time-dependent c(t) = q 1 (t)c 0 , where c 0 is the initial contact rate and q 1 (t) is the intervention coefficient with respect to contact. Here we as.....
Document: With the increasing of cumulative number of confirmed cases, the probability of contact transmission among the informed susceptible populations would certainly reduce ( [17, 18, 19] , etc.). To better quantify the varied interventions and self-protection measures, we assume the contact rate to be time-dependent c(t) = q 1 (t)c 0 , where c 0 is the initial contact rate and q 1 (t) is the intervention coefficient with respect to contact. Here we assume that q 1 (t) = e −δT (t) , which is dependent on the total number of cumulative confirmed cases T (t) and is monotone All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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