Author: Zhanwei Du; Ling Wang; Simon Cauchemez; Xiaoke Xu; Xianwen Wang; Benjamin J Cowling; Lauren Ancel Meyers
Title: Risk for Transportation of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) from Wuhan to Cities in China Document date: 2020_1_30
ID: mbdj3r0m_3
Snippet: We estimated the probability of transportation of infectious COVID-19 cases from Wuhan to cities throughout China before January 23 by using a simple model of exponential growth coupled with a stochastic model of human mobility among 369 cities in China (Appendix). Given that an estimated 98% of all trips between Wuhan and other Chinese cities during this period were taken by train or car, our analysis of air, rail, and road travel data yields mo.....
Document: We estimated the probability of transportation of infectious COVID-19 cases from Wuhan to cities throughout China before January 23 by using a simple model of exponential growth coupled with a stochastic model of human mobility among 369 cities in China (Appendix). Given that an estimated 98% of all trips between Wuhan and other Chinese cities during this period were taken by train or car, our analysis of air, rail, and road travel data yields more granular risk estimates than possible with air passenger data alone (7) .
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